Sir Mark Boleat, former policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, gave a fascinating talk on how he sees the fallout of Brexit impacting on London’s financial services industry at the Cass Business School last week.
Mark will be familiar to many in Jersey, and it will come as no surprise that his verdict was clear and blunt. It is his opinion that the UK is unlikely to receive any special treatment after the Brexit transitional period in terms of access to the EU’s financial markets, and that could mean the potential loss of some 75,000 jobs and £100 bn in tax revenues in the UK.
So how concerned should we be about these UK forecasts in relation to Jersey’s finance industry? What they do emphasise is just how important it is for the Island to fully understand the scale of the challenges that the new context of Brexit presents.
The reality is that there is uncertainty over Britain’s financial future as a result of Brexit – Mark didn’t shy away from that. We are now two years on since the referendum and we are still awaiting clarity on what the relationship between the UK and the EU will look like. A wide range of possibilities is still open, ranging from a ‘hard Brexit’ with no access to the EU for financial services firms (his worst-case but most likely scenario) to some form of single-market access.
Depending on the outcome, the…