Wherever you live, it’s not unusual to have a few days where the temperature is either unusually high or unusually low for that particular time of year. For example, there could be a day or two in February with temperatures in the low to mid 50s followed by more normal temperatures in the 30s. It’s also not unusual to have some days with highs only in the 20s. If we assume the average high temperature for February is 37 degrees, that doesn’t mean the high temperature is always exactly that or even within a couple degrees. It means when the month is done, we add up all the high temps, divide by the number of days in the month and arrive at our average high temperature.

We know we can and do have unseasonably mild or cold days from time to time. If it was in the 50s for a couple days in February, that doesn’t mean we now think it will continue to be in the 50s in February. Similarly, in July, if historically the average high is 87 degrees and there are a couple days with highs only in the 70s, we understand it’s not going to continue to be a high in the 70s just because of those couple of days. But how do we know?Because through many years of data, that…