WASHINGTON — There are many reasons why the Senate will probably reject Republicans’ crowning bill razing much of former President Barack Obama’s health care law. There are fewer why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might revive it and avert a GOP humiliation.
Leaders say the Senate will vote Tuesday on their health care legislation. They’ve postponed votes twice because too many Republicans were poised to vote no. That could happen again.
The latest bill by McConnell, R-Ky. — and it could change anew — would end penalties Democrat Obama’s health care law slapped on people without insurance, and on larger companies not offering coverage to workers. It would erase requirements that insurers cover specified medical services, cut the Medicaid health insurance program for the poor and shrink subsidies for many consumers.
AWFUL POLL NUMBERS
In an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll this month, 51 percent supported Obama’s statute while just 22 percent backed GOP legislation.
Perhaps more ominously for Republicans, the AP-NORC poll found that by a 25-percentage-point margin, most think it’s the federal government’s responsibility to ensure all Americans have coverage. That’s a growing view — there was just a 5-percentage-point gap in March. It underscores a harsh reality for the GOP: It’s hard to strip benefits from voters.
AWFUL CBO NUMBERS
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says under McConnell’s plan, 22 million more people would be uninsured by 2026, mostly Medicaid recipients and people buying private policies. For single people, the typical deductible — out-of-pocket expenses before insurance defrays costs — would balloon that year to $13,000, up from $5,000 under Obama’s law.
Note to the entire House and one-third of the Senate, which face re-election in 2018: 15 million would become uninsured next year. And though CBO says average premiums should fall in 2020, they’ll head up in 2018 and 2019.
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